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The International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) interim ruling has unexpectedly provided the international community with a legal touchstone to judge the Gaza war when all along the warring parties and their supporters only indulged in accusing each other of violations of international law. Now there is a legal basis for judging who is violating what in Gaza. Anchoring Ladders
By admitting the case saying that genocide has “plausibly” been committed by Israel, by asking Israel to do everything it can to stop acts of genocide and stop all incitement to genocide by senior Israeli officials and ministers, by terming the humanitarian situation in Gaza as “catastrophic” and at “serious risk of deteriorating further”, and by ordering effective and immediate humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza, the ICJ has literally given a legal yardstick to judge acts of violations by Israel and even by Hamas on the hostage issue. No more can anyone claim that no violations are taking place despite the fact that at least 27,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza in four months, among them 11,000 children, while Hamas is holding 136 Israelis as hostages.
The ruling has put Israel and its strongest supporter, the United States (US), on notice. Reading between the lines, if the ICJ ruling has to be implemented in letter and spirit, then the logical conclusion is that a ceasefire is inevitable. But for Israel and its supporters, this conclusion is anything but logical.
The first step Israel took was a direct challenge to the ICJ ruling. Within two days of the judgment, a conference was held in Jerusalem with a not-so-subtle title, “Conference for victory of Israel — settlement brings security: returning to Gaza Strip and Northern Samaria”. Twelve ministers of Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet and parliamentarians from the ruling coalition attended the conference and called for what the ICJ had expressly asked them to stop — forcing Palestinians out of occupied territories.
The US and the other big western supporters of Israel decided, at the same time as the Jerusalem conference, to stop contributions to the only UN agency serving Palestinian refugees in Gaza since 1949 — the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), thereby violating another crucial ruling of ICJ for ensuring “effective and immediate” humanitarian aid to Gaza. Their outrage is that 12 out of the 13,000 UNRWA employees in Gaza were allegedly involved in the October 7 attacks in Israel. Though UNRWA is taking action, Israel has not shared the details of the 12 with UN.
Consequently, at a time when the World Health Organization calls the conditions in Gaza as “hellish”, assistance to 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza has been cut off. This move has deeper substantive implications since defunding UNRWA would mean defunding Palestinian refugees which would, in turn, mean forcible displacement and/or tacitly derecognising Palestinian refugees and effectively taking out one of the contentious unresolved issues on the table for Palestinian Statehood — the right of return. This is what Israel had wanted all along.
On the other hand, things are getting out of hand in the region. In a recent serious escalation, three US troops have been killed and many injured in a US logistics army base in Jordan, near the Syrian border, through a drone attack by Iranian-backed Shia militias. Iran’s hand is visible in the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, though the US-led counterattacks on Houthi bases have not deterred them. The Israelis are themselves in no mood to step back from the brink. In fact, they are preparing to escalate attacks on Hezbollah, with their defence minister stating that “even if Hezbollah ceases fire unilaterally, we won’t” without guarantees, even though Hezbollah seems to eschew the spreading of the conflict. Israel is now amassing forces on its northern border with Lebanon in preparation for a strike on Hezbollah.
The major actors in West Asia are only doing more of the same, escalating attacks against each other, in the belief that this will bring the situation under control. Public opinion in countries, even within Israel, is turning against Israeli actions. What has become increasingly untenable is the continued “unconditional support” for Israeli actions from the US, a country which can pull back the region from the brink. While one can put down the US strategy to domestic pro-Israel lobby pressure, the strategic role of Israel in containing Iran and combating Islamic terror and fundamentalist groups, this “blank cheque” policy is clearly eroding America’s avowed attempt to regain its clout with the Global South, as a counterpoise to China’s growing influence.
The US brokered “normalisation” between Israel and Gulf countries is in cold storage. The only sensible initiative for securing the region has been the Saudi–Iran rapprochement a year ago, brokered by China, when Houthis hit a Saudi Aramco installation and threatened more. A practical Tehran policy for the US from Washington is long overdue, especially after the US unilaterally pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal with Iran.
In Jerusalem, relatives of 136 Israeli hostages had stormed into a Knesset meeting demanding their release. They realise that hostages can emerge alive only after a ceasefire and a political deal with Hamas, which the Israeli government has ruled out. But serious discussions are reportedly on through Qatar and Egypt for a three-phase truce. Will the exchange of the last hostage also mean the disappearance of the last chance for a two-State solution? Maybe the answer lies in the trial balloon floated by the British foreign secretary David Cameron that they are considering recognising a Palestinian State as soon as the hostilities end.
Why is Israel not stepping back from fighting on multiple fronts? Why is a ceasefire not an option? Why are they defying the ICJ ruling? The reason may be political. Any moves, seen as reconciliatory, will ensure the collapse of this far-Right coalition government and lead to the holding of elections. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces the prospect of an unceremonious exit from his political career; his government’s survival seems to depend on the war continuing in Gaza and escalation in the region.
Anti-Twisting Steel Braided Rope TS Tirumurti, a former diplomat, was India’s first Representative to the Palestinian Authority and lived in Gaza for two years from 1996. The views expressed are personal